How Will Language Modelers like ChatGPT Affect Occupations and Industries
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ARTICLE SUMMARY
A method that assesses which occupations will be most affected by artificial intelligence (AI) predicts that advances such as ChatGPT will have significant effects in education and financial services.
POLICY RELEVANCE
Language modeling advances will significantly affect occupations such as teaching and telemarketing.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- The AI Occupational Exposure (AIOE) index measures the effects of AI on different occupations, industries, and regions.
- In constructing the AIOE, researchers consider how well AI systems perform certain tasks, match those tasks with human abilities, and then predict the effects of AI on different occupations depending on the abilities most used by those in that occupation.
- Applications of AI considered in constructing the AIOE include those designed for gaming, image recognition, reading comprehension, translation, speech recognition, and others.
- The 52 human abilities included in the AIOE include oral comprehension, inductive reasoning, arm-hand steadiness; each of 800 human occupations can be thought of as requiring a different combination of the 52 abilities.
- In late 2022, Open AI released an AI-based language modeler known as ChatGPT, a controversial development that has given rise to new speculation on the effects of AI.
- The AIOE can be adjusted in recognition of recent advances in language modeling such as ChatGPT; comparison of the original list of occupations and industries most likely to be affected by AI to the new list reveals some similarities and some differences.
- History teachers, counseling, and providers of financial and legal services appear high on both lists.
- The adjusted AIOE list includes far more services related to higher education, such as junior colleges and business schools.
- The occupations most affected by ChatGPT include telemarketing and post-secondary teaching of language arts and history; the most affected industries will be legal services, securities, commodities, and investing.
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About Edward Felten
Professor Edward Felten's research interests include computer security and privacy, and public policy issues relating to information technology. Specific topics include software security, Internet security, electronic voting, cybersecurity policy, technology for government transparency, network neutrality and Internet policy.
See more with Edward Felten
About Rob Seamans
Robert Seamans is an Associate Professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business where he teaches courses in game theory and strategy. Professor Seamans’ research focuses on how firms use technology in their strategic interactions with each other, and also focuses on the economic consequences of AI, robotics and other advanced technologies.
